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There are plenty of good reasons you might be ready to move. No matter your motivations, before you list your current house, you need to... http://dlvr.it/Shg8pV

For those in the housing and mortgage market, there's certainly been a shift in the tone over the past few weeks.  I can't speak for everyone in that market, but in daily conversations with mortgage originators, the topic of an uptick in home sales is coming up for the first time in quite a while.   To be clear, I don't think anyone thinks that we're experiencing some massive reversal of fortune.  We're not quickly going back to near-all-time high sales pace seen at times during 2020 and 2021.  Rather, the hope is that we're finally seeing an end to a fairly depressing slide that took sales levels to near-all-time lows. The just-released Pending Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors is the latest in a small collection of data that quantifies the potential shift.  In this case, words are probably worth more than pictures because we can say things like "pending home sales moved up at the fastest pace since October 2021."  The chart ma...

The two reports most capable of surprising the market this week were Thursday's GDP and Friday's PCE.  While it's always good to maintain some respect for potential surprises, weren't looking for any major revelations in terms of the market's reaction.  By some combination of their 2nd tier nature and the fact that they came in close to consensus, these reports caused no regret for those who hit the snooze button on this week's volatility risk. In short, this week has been every bit the snooze-fest we suspected it might be.  Yields have been locked in an even narrower version of the 3.42-3.62 range set in early December (this week's ceiling is more like 3.56%). Seeing as how the range is boring, let's turn to something slightly more interesting.  There has been a seemingly newsworthy development in the economic metric known as "Money Supply."  It declined in year-over-year terms for the first time ever this week.  Big news, right? Discla...

Every lender or investor with an “a” in their name seems to be subject to rumors and news in recent months. (More on Flagstar and American Pacific below.) Know anyone named “Bernadette”? The name is actually Latin for, “The act of torching a mortgage.” (Yes, it is cutting edge humor like that which brings you back.) Burning liens isn’t a topic, but paying them off early is, and with mortgage rates off of their highs, early pay offs, or EPOs, were a conversation topic at the conference this week. And with it, loan officer compensation follows. Can a lender pay an originator based on pull through? Yes. Can lenders pay different originators under different payment plans, as long as the originator sticks with one plan? Yes. Can a lender, if they comply with state labor law, ask for compensation back after an EPO or EPD? Yes, and it may depend on the contract signed by both parties at the beginning of employment. As always, consult your in-house counsel or a lawyer well-versed in mortgage b...

Some Highlights * If you’re thinking of buying a home this year, be sure to factor in the long-term benefits of homeownership. * On average, nationwide, home prices appreciated by 288.7% over the last 32 years. That means homeowners grow their net worth significantly in the long term. http://dlvr.it/ShWvMz

Thursday's opening commentary could very well end up being the closing commentary.  We came into the day entertaining the possibility that economic data could make a dent in this week's sideways momentum.  It looked like it might do just that for a few moments, but trading levels quickly corrected back to pre-data levels.  Now we wait to see if anything else will nudge yields above this morning's highs. The following chart shows the recently relevant correlation with EU bonds as well as this morning's data-driven breakout and return back under 3.50 (the line on the chart is actually at 3.49 as that ended up being more of a pivot point over the past 2 days, but within a single bp, it doesn't really matter in the bigger picture).  3.49 or 3.50 would simply be an intermediate pivot point while 3.62 would be a bigger deal when it comes to ceilings we'd hope to avoid breaking. Here are the same two securities with the same scaling, zoomed out to show 3.62% as a ...