What Are Your Priorities in 2023

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Latest Home Sales Data Adds to Case For a Bounce

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For those in the housing and mortgage market, there's certainly been a shift in the tone over the past few weeks.  I can't speak for everyone in that market, but in daily conversations with mortgage originators, the topic of an uptick in home sales is coming up for the first time in quite a while.   To be clear, I don't think anyone thinks that we're experiencing some massive reversal of fortune.  We're not quickly going back to near-all-time high sales pace seen at times during 2020 and 2021.  Rather, the hope is that we're finally seeing an end to a fairly depressing slide that took sales levels to near-all-time lows. The just-released Pending Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors is the latest in a small collection of data that quantifies the potential shift.  In this case, words are probably worth more than pictures because we can say things like "pending home sales moved up at the fastest pace since October 2021."  The chart ma...
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PCE Inflation Joins The Ho-Hum Chorus; What's up With Money Supply?

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The two reports most capable of surprising the market this week were Thursday's GDP and Friday's PCE.  While it's always good to maintain some respect for potential surprises, weren't looking for any major revelations in terms of the market's reaction.  By some combination of their 2nd tier nature and the fact that they came in close to consensus, these reports caused no regret for those who hit the snooze button on this week's volatility risk. In short, this week has been every bit the snooze-fest we suspected it might be.  Yields have been locked in an even narrower version of the 3.42-3.62 range set in early December (this week's ceiling is more like 3.56%). Seeing as how the range is boring, let's turn to something slightly more interesting.  There has been a seemingly newsworthy development in the economic metric known as "Money Supply."  It declined in year-over-year terms for the first time ever this week.  Big news, right? Discla...
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